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A Future with Climate Change
Climate models
To predict future climate, scientists use computer programs called climate models to understand how our planet is changing. Climate models work like a laboratory in a computer. They allow scientists to study how different factors work together to influence a region’s climate.
Scientists use these models to see how the climate will respond to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Scientists have used these models to show how much our climate will change if we continue to have high emissions of greenhouse gases. They have also used these models to show how climate change can be reduced by lowering our greenhouse gas emissions.
What changes can we expect to the climate in Aotearoa?
Changes to our temperature and rainfall are already occurring, but the impacts will be different across the country.
Annual average temperature changes by 2090
The green map shows the likely temperature increase if the world vastly reduced emissions. This shows Aotearoa would be only slightly warmer on average.
The red map shows a high emission, or "business as usual" emissions. This shows most of Aotearoa will experience an increase in temperature of 2-4 degrees warmer on average.
Annual average rainfall changes by 2090
The map on the left shows annual average rainfall for a low emission world, leading to very little change in rainfall.
The map on the right shows annual average rainfall if the current level of greenhouse gas emissions continue. This map shows the East Coast and north of the North Island will have less rain, and the South Island will have an increase in rain. The mountains of the South Island may also have less snowfall.
How do you think these changes will affect you and your community?
Take a look at map below to see how climate change could affect your region:
You can find out more here.
Complete the A Future with Climate Change quiz
> Discover more about climate change in Aotearoa